BCS Breakdown Part 2

As confusing as the BCS can be, I thought I would try to breakdown the standings and try to simplify things. There are only a handful of teams that have a chance to play for the National Championship (Oregon and Auburn/Bama are in the drivers seat). It might be easier to look at the standings as 5 seperate groups.

Group 1 (Big 10 Teams) - Wisconsin(9), Ohio State(11)
These teams don't have a great shot and getting to the NC Game.
Don't be surprised if Wisconsin jumps NU this week due to getting a boost in the computer polls when TCU/Utah and Bama/LSU lose. However, their remaining schedule and lack of a conference championship game will do them no favors.
The thing to watch will be who will win the conference and go to the Rose Bowl?

Iowa Goes if...they win out and Wisconsin loses
Ohio State Goes if...they win out and Wisconsin loses or Wicconsin and Michigan State win out but Wisconsin falls behind OSU in the final BCS
Michigan State Goes if...MSU, Wisconsin and Iowa all win out
Wisconsin Goes if...they win out and either MSU loses or Ohio State also wins out be does not pass Wisconsin in the BCS

Group 2 (Pac 10 Teams) - Oregon(1)
This one is easy Oregon will play for the NC if they win out. If Oregon loses 1 game (to either Washington, Cal, Arizona, and Oregon State), it opens the door for an undefeated Non-AQ team or a one loss Big 12/SEC champion to jump ahead.

Group 3 (Non Automatic Qualifier Teams) - TCU(3), Boise State(4), Utah(5)
TCU plays Utah this week so one of these teams will be eliminated. We should root for Utah, because they would be easier to jump. Other than this week's TCU/Utah game, none of these teams have any difficult games remaining. NU really needs Boise and TCU to slip up. If one of these teams wins out, they will likely be ahead of NU in line as the next team into the NC game.

Group 4 (SEC Teams) - Auburn(2), Alabama(6), LSU(10)
Alabama and LSU play this week which will eliminate one of the 2 teams. If either Auburn or Alabama win out, they will likely play for the NC. (Alabama would get huge boost for beating LSU, Auburn and then a likely rematch against South Carolina). The best thing that could happen for NU would be for LSU to beat Alabama this weekend, then Alabama beats Auburn. Then Auburn would still represent the West in the SEC championship and have a chance to lose again. If LSU wins this weekend they will likely jump NU in the BCS, but with a game at Arkansas remaining and likely no chance to make the SEC Championship, they likely wouldn't be able to hold their position through the end of the season.

Group 5 (Big 12 Teams) - Nebraska(7), Oklahoma(8)
Nebraska needs to win out to have a shot at a BCS bowl. If they lost in the Big 12 Championship, there is a chance they could still be an at Large BCS selection but there is also a chance a 1 loss Missouri team would be selected instead (In 2007 the same thing happened to Missouri when they beat Kansas but lost to Oklahoma again in the Big 12 Championship. The Orange Bowl selected a one loss KU team ahead of a 2 Loss Missouri team, even though Missouri had just beaten KU and their only 2 losses were to Oklahoma). The best scenario for NU would be for Oklahoma to keep wining and NU beat them in the Big12 game. Also, Missouri is for some reason still dominating the computer polls. As much as it is hard to do, NU needs to root for Missouri to keep winning which helps our computer rankings too. The winner of the Big12 (assuming it's a 1 loss team) will likely be the second highest ranked 1 loss team at the end of the season behind Alabama if they win out

Projected BCS Standings following this week's games:
1. Oregon
2. Auburn
3. Boise
4. TCU/Utah winner
5. Alabama/LSU winner
6. Oklahoma
7. Wisconsin
(Assuming NU won't gain on either OU or Wisconsin in the Human polls, both these teams will gain more this week in the computer polls than NU)
8. Nebraska
9. Ohio State
10. Missouri

This week:
Husker fans should root for Utah to beat TCU and for LSU to beat Alabama
1. If LSU and Utah win, Nebraska by winning alone should be able to jump Wisconsin, Oklahoma, LSU, Utah putting them 4th behind Oregon, Auburn, and Boise. Then we would need 2 big slip ups.
2. If TCU wins, we can probably add them to the list with Oregon, Auburn, and Boise, and now we would need 3 of the 4 to slip up later in the season.
3. If Alabama wins, then the only thing that would keep the winner of the Alabama/Auburn game out of the NC would be a potential loss to the winner of the Florida/South Carolina winner in the SEC Championship